We provide asset managers with:
- Quantified forecasts of investible assets in the five major asset classes and sub-classes
- Essentialized weekly reports in three powerful contexts
- Custom consulting services including model enhancements
- Transparent track records for all of our investible forecasts’ accuracy and model portfolios’ CAGRs
Just as our methodology is fully integrated to provide you with the greatest forecasting accuracy possible from the hard evidence of market price relationships, so our monthly and weekly publications are structured to provide you with an efficient, inter-connected, timely and often timeless sum of practical investment knowledge.
To save you time, our reports are condensed to essentials. To insure that no assertion goes unsupported, most reports include footnotes to other work including our pdf knowledge base of over 800 prior reports – many of which provide ongoing value in building on long history relationships among objective, never revised market prices.
Throughout our reports, all of our models’ inputs are transparently disclosed, and we regularly present often unique and contrarian analyses of the relative forecasting power of different inputs (ours and others) amid changing market conditions throughout the cycle. To save you even more time amid today’s inundations of trivia, speculation and falsehood, we occasionally issue “negative research” reports that demonstrate how some inputs do not matter to portfolio returns and can be safely ignored or diminished in priority.
Finally, our authors write with allegiance to what is true, important for investing, essential and clear.
Quantified Forecasts of Investible Assets (monthly)
Monthly analysis and price forecasts of 186 strategically definitive investibles (mostly ETFs) 6 and 12 months ahead. Each edition includes summaries of the global markets and optimal portfolio strategies in the following sections, asset classes and sub-classes (with total numbers of investibles):
One-Year Ahead Recommended Asset Allocations
- (5 broad, non-security-specific model portfolios)
- Global Investors
- U.S. Specific Investors
- U.S. Specific Investors (Fixed Income)
- U.S. Specific Investors (Equities)
- U.S. Specific Investors (Sector Rotation)
U.S. Dollar & Commodity Prices
- U.S. Dollar in Foreign Exchange (9)
- Broad Commodity Indexes (7)
- Specific Commodities (28)
U.S. Money Market, Yield Curve, Spreads
- U.S. Treasury Yields & Total Returns (6)
- U.S. Corporate Bond Yields (3)
- U.S. Corporate Yield Spreads (3)
U.S. Fixed Income: Govt., Corp. & MBS
- Composite Bond Indexes (2)
- U.S. Govt. Bills, Notes & Bonds (8)
- U.S. Agency, MBS, & Municipals (5)
- U.S. Corporate Bonds & FRNs (12)
U.S. Equities, Styles & Sectors
- U.S. Equities & Style Bets (10)
- S&P 500 Sectors (10)
- Year-Ahead Forecasts
- Year-Ahead Recommended Allocations
International Currencies & Fixed Income
- Foreign Currencies (10)
- Foreign Government Bonds (Broad) TR
- Developed Markets (4)
- Emerging Markets (3)
- Foreign Government Bond Yields (13)
- Foreign Government Bonds (Country) TR (13)
- Broad (10)
- Asia-Pacific (10)
- Europe (10)
- Americas (4)
IFI Asset Allocation Advice, Past 12 months
Forecasts: IFI vs. Wall St. Strategists (January Outlook issue only)
Here, we compare our year-ahead forecasts to those of Barron’s published, top 10 other forecasters. At the end of each year, our cumulative, unabridged Track Record then reprises the comparison – showing each forecaster’s actual results and accuracy. This may be the only such published record of forecasting accuracy in existence, on or off Wall Street.
Essentialized Reports in Three Series (weekly)
Focused and timely analyses of significant near term shifts in market performance – or in government policies affecting markets – that may occur between the monthly publication of The InterMarket Forecaster.
In-depth, historical analyses of the factors driving a specific asset or asset class.
Free-market analyses of the fundamental political-policy factors which determine economic and financial performance and materially influence investments. By distinguishing basic truths from prevailing myths, these reports help investment managers identify and profit from broad trends in policy and markets – often becoming more contrarian as a means of identifying better opportunities sooner.
Customized Services (upon request)
Client-specific consulting engagements and projects including model enhancements: through web- and tele-conferencing, email exchanges and on-site presentations.
Transparent Track Record (always)
We think every research provider, forecaster, commentator and economist should only be paid for being right – just like investment managers. So we’ve published our Track Record every year since we began in 2000. It’s unabridged, public, fully transparent and cumulative. It’s nearly 3 business cycles of proof that markets can be forecast reliably (better than a 50/50 coin toss) – in the 6 to 12 month horizon – using a disciplined, all price-based methodology.
Unfortunately, the past quarter-century has been marked by endemic markets politicization (most punitively in the form of ZIRPs and NIRPs). As a consequence, most investors have been stymied, and most investment managers have under-performed their risk- and inflation-adjusted passive benchmarks.
Derision from promoters of ETFs and “passive” strategies has added insult to managers’ injuries. Even vaunted George Soros got the investment consequences of Brexit completely wrong (while IFI’s models correctly forecast the buying opportunity for double-digit gains). More broadly, legendary GMO hedge fund founder Jeremy Grantham claimed that perhaps only a dozen people in the world foresaw the Great Recession of December 2007 through June 2009 (although IFI clients knew 12 months in advance; see our report of December 7th, 2006, “The Recession of 2007.”
In fact, IFI clients have profited from consistently reliable knowledge, typically 6 and 12 months in advance, on those and hundreds of other topics of strategic importance to portfolio returns since 2000 (see our major topics taxonomy here). And those profits have not been a result of IFI’s having been smarter or more prescient than markets. Rather, they have resulted from IFI’s allegiance to decoding the prescience which markets themselves project from the combined intelligence and foresight which buyers and sellers bring to market prices in any given period and context. No single buyer is omniscient or infallible, but for every buyer there has been a seller and vice-versa. Such is the nature of markets. Indeed, relationships among the ever-changing prices of investible assets reduce to timeless consequences of human nature and the nature of politicization. IFI delivers – by asset class and subclass, regionally and globally – throughout the cycle.