The investment research industry is unfortunately replete with sellers who “cherry-pick” their successes as inducements to investors to purchase the sellers’ research.
By contrast, IFI may be the only research or forecasting firm—on or off Wall St.—who publishes its cumulative, unabridged Track Record every year. Please download our Track Record and examine for yourself how we report the accuracy of our year-ahead forecasts for each of the 150+ investibles that we forecasted in January of the prior year and how we summarize the number of variables, the percentage correct and the percentages above and below average.
Our 15-year price forecasting accuracy is 65% directionally correct, one year in advance, across an average of 130 strategically definitive investibles (mostly the largest, liquid ETFs) in the five major asset classes and sub-classes, globally.* This record is proof that financial markets can be reliably forecast in the 12 month horizon using a disciplined, all-price-based method.
In our January Outlook each year, we compare the immediately prior year-end market prices and index levels with our prior year forecasts and those of the top Wall Street strategists which Barron’s chose near the beginning of that year. Our Track Records show the percentages of those Wall St. peers whom we surpassed – by year, and averaged for our 15 years in business. These records may be the only published comparisons of major market forecasters’ reliability in existence.
Forecasting accuracy is the indispensable, root means to out-performance in every style and strategy. Investment managers are evaluated according to their periodic and cumulative performance; in our view, research providers should be no different.
So why don’t more research sellers publish their cumulative, unabridged track records?
* Further, since their inception in 2003, our four, year-ahead, non-security-specific model portfolios (Global Equity Investor, U.S.-Specific Investor, U.S.-Specific Equity Investor and U.S.-Specific Bond Investor), have respectively out-performed their passive benchmarks 85%, 77%, 69% and 77% of the time based on a single adjustment in January of each year (an actively managed, low-turnover basis). On this basis alone, our model portfolio’s CAGRs (compound average growth rates) have provided our clients with strategic guidance advantages of 1.15% p.a., 3.19% p.a., 0.97% p.a., and 5.19% p.a., respectively – throughout nearly three, especially challenging business cycles. For full details, see page 14 of our 2015 Track Record.